About This Dashboard
What It Does
Tracks 18+ cross-asset spread ratios across rates, credit, equity risk, and commodities. Each spread is scored on trend, distance from mean, and momentum to produce a composite signal. Forces are grouped into four market levels (Rates, Earnings, Liquidity, Sentiment) for regime scoring.
Today's Reading
# Market Spread Analysis - Today's Snapshot
Today's data shows a market pulling back from maximum risk-on positioning while maintaining a core risk-appetite foundation. The SPY/TLT ratio at 8.90 is solidly above its 50-day average (8.69) with strong upward momentum of 3.99%, confirming a clear risk-on preference for equities over bonds. Small-cap confidence is also rising—IWM/SPY at 0.395 is above trend with 1.57% outperformance—suggesting broadening risk appetite beneath the surface. However, cracks are appearing: the speculative ARKK/QQQ spread is fading with negative 5-day momentum (-1.13%) despite being 3% above its mean, indicating profit-taking in high-growth names; simultaneously, EM weakness is diverging negatively (EEM/SPY below its average at -1.62%) even as the ratio ticks higher, signaling flight to US safety. Credit conditions remain stable and flat (HYG/LQD), acting as a steady intermediate signal without sending stress warnings.For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
I: Rates / Duration
+0.33
Bullish
II: Earnings / Fundamentals
-0.38
Bearish
III: Liquidity / Structure
+0.33
Bullish
IV: Sentiment / Positioning
+0.17
Leaning Bullish
All Spreads
Click any column to sort| Market Level | Category | Spread | Trend | Dist % | Slope | 5d Mom | 20d Mom | Score ▼ | Status / Meaning | Playbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I: Rates / Duration | Risk-On/Off | SPY/TLT | ABOVE | +2.34% | RISING (+1.065%) | +2.1% | +4.0% | +2 | CONFIRMED Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds | Favor equity longs, underweight duration. Dip-buy equities near SMA. |
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Breadth / Small-Cap Confidence | IWM/SPY | ABOVE | +1.57% | RISING (+0.666%) | -1.0% | +1.7% | +2 | CONFIRMED Small-cap confidence, broad risk-on, market breadth expanding | Broaden equity exposure into small/mid caps. IWM longs, sell large-cap premium. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Semiconductor Leadership | SMH/SPY | ABOVE | +1.71% | RISING (+4.062%) | +1.7% | +2.5% | +2 | CONFIRMED Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator | Semis leading = growth intact. Overweight tech, favor NVDA/AVGO/AMD. Add on pullbacks. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Gold/Silver Ratio (Fear Gauge) | GLD/SLV | ABOVE | +10.11% | RISING (+2.434%) | +1.6% | +7.5% | +2 | CONFIRMED Fear rising, safe-haven demand, economic pessimism -- readings above 80 signal silver undervaluation | Fear trade -- hold gold, reduce silver. If ratio > 80, watch for silver mean-reversion long. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Silver Miner Confidence | SIL/SLV | ABOVE | +4.84% | RISING (+1.015%) | -2.7% | +10.3% | +2 | CONFIRMED Miners outperforming metal, operating leverage in play, equity risk appetite | Miners leveraging silver rally -- overweight SIL/SILJ over physical SLV. Equity risk appetite intact. |
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Credit Confidence | HYG/LQD | ABOVE | +0.90% | FLAT (+0.091%) | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1 | HOLDING Credit confidence, risk appetite, junk outperforming IG | HY credit is safe to hold, favor carry trades. Add risk in credit-sensitive names. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Speculative Sentiment | ARKK/QQQ | ABOVE | +3.00% | FALLING (-1.361%) | -1.1% | +7.0% | +1 | FADING Speculative froth, maximum risk-on, unprofitable growth bid | Speculative names working -- ride momentum but tighten stops. Late-cycle warning if parabolic. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Consumer Confidence / Cycle | XLY/XLP | ABOVE | +0.20% | FALLING (-0.896%) | +1.9% | +5.3% | +1 | FADING Consumer confidence, discretionary spending strong -- parabolic readings are late-cycle warning | Consumer is healthy -- favor retail, travel, housing. Watch for parabolic = late-cycle top. |
| I: Rates / Duration | Housing Cycle | XHB/SPY | ABOVE | +0.38% | FALLING (-0.122%) | -5.3% | +0.2% | +1 | FADING Housing leading, rate-sensitive consumer confidence strong | Housing leading -- favor homebuilders, building materials, mortgage REITs. Consumer is strong. |
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Global Risk Appetite | EEM/SPY | BELOW | -1.62% | RISING (+0.277%) | +0.7% | -0.1% | -1 | DIVERGING EM stress, flight to quality, dollar strengthening | Underweight EM, favor US large cap. Long DXY, avoid commodity-linked EM. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Global Growth (Copper/Gold) | COPX/GLD | BELOW | -2.73% | RISING (+1.001%) | -1.6% | -3.2% | -1 | HOLDING BELOW Recession risk, deflation fears, rate cuts expected | Favor gold over copper, add duration. Recession playbook -- utilities, staples, Treasuries. |
| I: Rates / Duration | Inflation Expectations | TIP/IEF | BELOW | -0.22% | FLAT (+0.062%) | +0.2% | -0.4% | -1 | HOLDING BELOW Inflation expectations falling, disinflation, nominals outperforming | Disinflation trade -- favor nominal Treasuries, growth over value, long duration. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Growth Expectations | XLB/XLU | BELOW | -2.37% | FALLING (-0.147%) | -2.0% | -1.5% | -2 | CONFIRMED Growth expectations falling, defensive rotation, recession positioning | Growth proxy falling -- rotate to defensives. Long XLU, short XLB. Reduce cyclical exposure. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Inflation vs Credit Cycle | XLE/XLF | BELOW | -8.45% | FALLING (-1.645%) | +3.1% | -11.2% | -2 | CONFIRMED Financials outperforming energy, credit expansion cycle, demand-driven | Credit expansion regime -- favor banks, brokers, insurance. Underweight energy. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Gold Miner Confidence | GDX/GLD | BELOW | -3.96% | FALLING (-1.562%) | -3.4% | +1.7% | -2 | CONFIRMED Bullion outperforming miners, safety preference, operational risk aversion | Hold bullion (GLD/IAU) over miners. Miner underperformance = avoid GDX, trim juniors. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Growth vs Value Rotation | IWF/IWD | BELOW | -3.30% | FALLING (-1.034%) | +1.9% | -1.9% | -2 | CONFIRMED Value outperforming growth, rate-hiking regime, late-cycle or mean-reversion | Value regime -- favor XLF, XLE, XLI. Underweight long-duration growth. Rates rising. |
General Market Playbook
OVERALL POSTURE
The board is split -- 4 bullish, 5 bearish, 4 in transition. This is a stock-picker's market, not a beta market. Reduce directional bets, favor pair trades and relative value. Raise cash to 20-30% to stay nimble.
MARKET LEVEL SUMMARY
I: Rates / Duration: BULLISH (norm +0.33) -- SPY/TLT, TIP/IEF, XHB/SPY
II: Earnings / Fundamentals: BEARISH (norm -0.38) -- COPX/GLD, XLB/XLU, SMH/SPY, XLE/XLF
III: Liquidity / Structure: BULLISH (norm +0.33) -- HYG/LQD, IWM/SPY, EEM/SPY
IV: Sentiment / Positioning: LEANING BULLISH (norm +0.17) -- ARKK/QQQ, XLY/XLP, GLD/SLV, SIL/SLV, GDX/GLD, IWF/IWD
WHAT'S WORKING
4 spreads with confirmed tailwinds:
SPY/TLT (Risk-On/Off) [I: Rates / Duration]: Favor equity longs, underweight duration. Dip-buy equities near SMA.
IWM/SPY (Breadth / Small-Cap Confidence) [III: Liquidity / Structure]: Broaden equity exposure into small/mid caps. IWM longs, sell large-cap premium.
SMH/SPY (Semiconductor Leadership) [II: Earnings / Fundamentals]: Semis leading = growth intact. Overweight tech, favor NVDA/AVGO/AMD. Add on pullbacks.
SIL/SLV (Silver Miner Confidence) [IV: Sentiment / Positioning]: Miners leveraging silver rally -- overweight SIL/SILJ over physical SLV. Equity risk appetite intact.
WHAT TO AVOID
5 spreads with confirmed headwinds:
XLB/XLU (Growth Expectations) [II: Earnings / Fundamentals]: Growth proxy falling -- rotate to defensives. Long XLU, short XLB. Reduce cyclical exposure.
XLE/XLF (Inflation vs Credit Cycle) [II: Earnings / Fundamentals]: Credit expansion regime -- favor banks, brokers, insurance. Underweight energy.
GLD/SLV (Gold/Silver Ratio (Fear Gauge)) [IV: Sentiment / Positioning]: Fear trade -- hold gold, reduce silver. If ratio > 80, watch for silver mean-reversion long.
GDX/GLD (Gold Miner Confidence) [IV: Sentiment / Positioning]: Hold bullion (GLD/IAU) over miners. Miner underperformance = avoid GDX, trim juniors.
IWF/IWD (Growth vs Value Rotation) [IV: Sentiment / Positioning]: Value regime -- favor XLF, XLE, XLI. Underweight long-duration growth. Rates rising.
WATCH LIST (signals in transition)
FADING (3): ARKK/QQQ, XLY/XLP, XHB/SPY -- still above SMA but momentum rolling over. These tailwinds are dying. Take profits in themes supported by these spreads. If they cross below SMA, the bullish case evaporates.
DIVERGING (1): EEM/SPY -- still below SMA but momentum recovering. These could be early reversal signals. Watch for SMA crossover to confirm. If they flip, consider early positioning in the bullish interpretation.
KEY RISK
SMH/SPY is in focus. Currently: Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator. If this flips, it changes the picture fast -- SMH/SPY is a high-impact spread for overall regime.
SPY/TLT is in focus. Currently: Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds. If this flips, it changes the picture fast -- SPY/TLT is a high-impact spread for overall regime.
Text Summary
Click to copySpread Monitor 07/09: MIXED / TRANSITIONING (-3%)
^ SPY/TLT [+2] CONFIRMED: Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds
^ IWM/SPY [+2] CONFIRMED: Small-cap confidence, broad risk-on, market breadth expanding
^ SMH/SPY [+2] CONFIRMED: Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator
^ GLD/SLV [+2] CONFIRMED: Fear rising, safe-haven demand, economic pessimism -- readings above 80 signal silver undervaluation
^ SIL/SLV [+2] CONFIRMED: Miners outperforming metal, operating leverage in play, equity risk appetite
^ HYG/LQD [+1] HOLDING: Credit confidence, risk appetite, junk outperforming IG
^ ARKK/QQQ [+1] FADING: Speculative froth, maximum risk-on, unprofitable growth bid
^ XLY/XLP [+1] FADING: Consumer confidence, discretionary spending strong -- parabolic readings are late-cycle warning
^ XHB/SPY [+1] FADING: Housing leading, rate-sensitive consumer confidence strong
v EEM/SPY [-1] DIVERGING: EM stress, flight to quality, dollar strengthening
v COPX/GLD [-1] HOLDING BELOW: Recession risk, deflation fears, rate cuts expected
v TIP/IEF [-1] HOLDING BELOW: Inflation expectations falling, disinflation, nominals outperforming
v XLB/XLU [-2] CONFIRMED: Growth expectations falling, defensive rotation, recession positioning
v XLE/XLF [-2] CONFIRMED: Financials outperforming energy, credit expansion cycle, demand-driven
v GDX/GLD [-2] CONFIRMED: Bullion outperforming miners, safety preference, operational risk aversion
v IWF/IWD [-2] CONFIRMED: Value outperforming growth, rate-hiking regime, late-cycle or mean-reversion