About This Dashboard
What It Does
Tracks 18+ cross-asset spread ratios across rates, credit, equity risk, and commodities. Each spread is scored on trend, distance from mean, and momentum to produce a composite signal. Forces are grouped into four market levels (Rates, Earnings, Liquidity, Sentiment) for regime scoring.
Today's Reading
Today's spread data reveals a market in selective risk positioning with mixed directional conviction. The most notable signal is the confirmed de-risking in speculative sentiment (ARKK/QQQ at 0.1166, down 2.18% and 3.00% over 5 and 20 days respectively), suggesting investors are rotating away from high-beta growth toward quality names—this sits as the sole negative signal score of -2. In contrast, emerging markets show confirmed strength with EEM/SPY rising to 0.0890 and posting a +2.39% 20-day gain, indicating risk appetite is flowing into EM despite the speculative pullback. Core structures remain stable: equity-to-bond preference persists (SPY/TLT at 7.91 with a fading but still elevated trend), credit confidence holds steady (HYG/LQD flat at 0.732), and small-cap breadth is supported (IWM/SPY gaining 3.74% over 20 days). The divergence between EM outperformance and speculative de-risking suggests a flight toward fundamental value and international diversification rather than broad risk-off.For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
I: Rates / Duration
+0.00
Mixed
II: Earnings / Fundamentals
+0.38
Bullish
III: Liquidity / Structure
+0.83
Bullish
IV: Sentiment / Positioning
+0.42
Bullish
All Spreads
Click any column to sort| Market Level | Category | Spread | Trend | Dist % | Slope | 5d Mom | 20d Mom | Score ▼ | Status / Meaning | Playbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Breadth / Small-Cap Confidence | IWM/SPY | ABOVE | +1.87% | RISING (+0.214%) | +0.5% | +4.0% | +2 | CONFIRMED Small-cap confidence, broad risk-on, market breadth expanding | Broaden equity exposure into small/mid caps. IWM longs, sell large-cap premium. |
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Global Risk Appetite | EEM/SPY | ABOVE | +1.77% | RISING (+0.554%) | +0.7% | +4.5% | +2 | CONFIRMED Global risk-on, EM bid, dollar weakening | Add EM equity/FX exposure. Short DXY or UUP. Favor commodity exporters. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Semiconductor Leadership | SMH/SPY | ABOVE | +8.68% | RISING (+1.721%) | +1.1% | +10.2% | +2 | CONFIRMED Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator | Semis leading = growth intact. Overweight tech, favor NVDA/AVGO/AMD. Add on pullbacks. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Silver Miner Confidence | SIL/SLV | ABOVE | +0.09% | RISING (+3.017%) | -3.7% | +6.5% | +2 | CONFIRMED Miners outperforming metal, operating leverage in play, equity risk appetite | Miners leveraging silver rally -- overweight SIL/SILJ over physical SLV. Equity risk appetite intact. |
| I: Rates / Duration | Risk-On/Off | SPY/TLT | ABOVE | +5.88% | FALLING (-0.216%) | +3.1% | +7.5% | +1 | FADING Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds | Favor equity longs, underweight duration. Dip-buy equities near SMA. |
| III: Liquidity / Structure | Credit Confidence | HYG/LQD | ABOVE | +0.67% | FLAT (+0.050%) | +0.1% | +0.2% | +1 | HOLDING Credit confidence, risk appetite, junk outperforming IG | HY credit is safe to hold, favor carry trades. Add risk in credit-sensitive names. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Speculative Sentiment | ARKK/QQQ | ABOVE | +3.14% | FALLING (-1.061%) | +4.8% | +2.6% | +1 | FADING Speculative froth, maximum risk-on, unprofitable growth bid | Speculative names working -- ride momentum but tighten stops. Late-cycle warning if parabolic. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Global Growth (Copper/Gold) | COPX/GLD | ABOVE | +6.54% | FLAT (-0.073%) | +0.3% | +17.0% | +1 | HOLDING Growth optimism, inflation expectations, rising rate expectations -- tracks ISM and 10Y closely | Favor cyclicals, commodities, and industrials. Long copper miners, short gold. Rates going higher. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Growth Expectations | XLB/XLU | ABOVE | +1.44% | FALLING (-1.052%) | -0.1% | +6.5% | +1 | FADING Growth expectations rising, cyclical demand, correlated with SPY r=0.53 and yields r=0.40 | Growth proxy rising -- favor materials, industrials, cyclical value. Sell utility premium. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Consumer Confidence / Cycle | XLY/XLP | ABOVE | +8.75% | FALLING (-1.067%) | +4.5% | +9.8% | +1 | FADING Consumer confidence, discretionary spending strong -- parabolic readings are late-cycle warning | Consumer is healthy -- favor retail, travel, housing. Watch for parabolic = late-cycle top. |
| I: Rates / Duration | Inflation Expectations | TIP/IEF | ABOVE | +0.27% | FLAT (+0.051%) | -0.3% | -0.3% | +1 | HOLDING Inflation expectations rising, TIPS outperforming nominals, breakeven widening | Inflation bid -- favor TIPS over nominals, commodities, real assets. Avoid long duration. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Gold Miner Confidence | GDX/GLD | ABOVE | +3.05% | FLAT (+0.016%) | -0.8% | +16.1% | +1 | HOLDING Miners outperforming bullion, speculative risk-on in gold equities | Gold miners leveraging -- overweight GDX/GDXJ over GLD. Add junior miners for beta. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Growth vs Value Rotation | IWF/IWD | ABOVE | +3.34% | FALLING (-0.908%) | +3.7% | +3.7% | +1 | FADING Growth outperforming value, momentum/duration trade, low-rate environment favored | Growth regime -- overweight QQQ/IWF, favor duration-sensitive tech. Underweight banks, energy. |
| II: Earnings / Fundamentals | Inflation vs Credit Cycle | XLE/XLF | BELOW | -6.52% | RISING (+3.261%) | -5.1% | -13.0% | -1 | HOLDING BELOW Financials outperforming energy, credit expansion cycle, demand-driven | Credit expansion regime -- favor banks, brokers, insurance. Underweight energy. |
| IV: Sentiment / Positioning | Gold/Silver Ratio (Fear Gauge) | GLD/SLV | BELOW | -4.07% | RISING (+3.533%) | -5.0% | -9.9% | -1 | HOLDING BELOW Industrial optimism, silver industrial demand rising, growth confidence | Industrial metals bid -- favor silver over gold, add copper/silver miners. Growth confidence. |
| I: Rates / Duration | Housing Cycle | XHB/SPY | BELOW | -5.00% | FALLING (-1.293%) | -1.8% | +2.0% | -2 | CONFIRMED Housing weakness, rate sensitivity biting, consumer stress | Housing rolling over -- avoid homebuilders, reduce REIT exposure. Rates hurting consumers. |
General Market Playbook
OVERALL POSTURE
4 of 16 spreads are confirmed bullish. This is a strong risk-on environment. Press equity longs, favor cyclicals over defensives, underweight duration and safe havens. Dips are buyable until credit or semis break.
MARKET LEVEL SUMMARY
I: Rates / Duration: MIXED (norm +0.00) -- SPY/TLT, TIP/IEF, XHB/SPY
II: Earnings / Fundamentals: BULLISH (norm +0.38) -- COPX/GLD, XLB/XLU, SMH/SPY, XLE/XLF
III: Liquidity / Structure: BULLISH (norm +0.83) -- HYG/LQD, IWM/SPY, EEM/SPY
IV: Sentiment / Positioning: BULLISH (norm +0.42) -- ARKK/QQQ, XLY/XLP, GLD/SLV, SIL/SLV, GDX/GLD, IWF/IWD
WHAT'S WORKING
4 spreads with confirmed tailwinds:
IWM/SPY (Breadth / Small-Cap Confidence) [III: Liquidity / Structure]: Broaden equity exposure into small/mid caps. IWM longs, sell large-cap premium.
EEM/SPY (Global Risk Appetite) [III: Liquidity / Structure]: Add EM equity/FX exposure. Short DXY or UUP. Favor commodity exporters.
SMH/SPY (Semiconductor Leadership) [II: Earnings / Fundamentals]: Semis leading = growth intact. Overweight tech, favor NVDA/AVGO/AMD. Add on pullbacks.
SIL/SLV (Silver Miner Confidence) [IV: Sentiment / Positioning]: Miners leveraging silver rally -- overweight SIL/SILJ over physical SLV. Equity risk appetite intact.
WHAT TO AVOID
1 spreads with confirmed headwinds:
XHB/SPY (Housing Cycle) [I: Rates / Duration]: Housing rolling over -- avoid homebuilders, reduce REIT exposure. Rates hurting consumers.
WATCH LIST (signals in transition)
FADING (5): SPY/TLT, ARKK/QQQ, XLB/XLU, XLY/XLP, IWF/IWD -- still above SMA but momentum rolling over. These tailwinds are dying. Take profits in themes supported by these spreads. If they cross below SMA, the bullish case evaporates.
KEY RISK
SMH/SPY is in focus. Currently: Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator. If this flips, it changes the picture fast -- SMH/SPY is a high-impact spread for overall regime.
SPY/TLT is in focus. Currently: Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds. If this flips, it changes the picture fast -- SPY/TLT is a high-impact spread for overall regime.
Text Summary
Click to copySpread Monitor 04/17: RISK-ON (+46%)
^ IWM/SPY [+2] CONFIRMED: Small-cap confidence, broad risk-on, market breadth expanding
^ EEM/SPY [+2] CONFIRMED: Global risk-on, EM bid, dollar weakening
^ SMH/SPY [+2] CONFIRMED: Tech/semis leading, growth cycle intact -- semis are leading economic indicator
^ SIL/SLV [+2] CONFIRMED: Miners outperforming metal, operating leverage in play, equity risk appetite
^ SPY/TLT [+1] FADING: Risk-on, equities preferred over bonds
^ HYG/LQD [+1] HOLDING: Credit confidence, risk appetite, junk outperforming IG
^ ARKK/QQQ [+1] FADING: Speculative froth, maximum risk-on, unprofitable growth bid
^ COPX/GLD [+1] HOLDING: Growth optimism, inflation expectations, rising rate expectations -- tracks ISM and 10Y closely
^ XLB/XLU [+1] FADING: Growth expectations rising, cyclical demand, correlated with SPY r=0.53 and yields r=0.40
^ XLY/XLP [+1] FADING: Consumer confidence, discretionary spending strong -- parabolic readings are late-cycle warning
^ TIP/IEF [+1] HOLDING: Inflation expectations rising, TIPS outperforming nominals, breakeven widening
^ GDX/GLD [+1] HOLDING: Miners outperforming bullion, speculative risk-on in gold equities
^ IWF/IWD [+1] FADING: Growth outperforming value, momentum/duration trade, low-rate environment favored
v XLE/XLF [-1] HOLDING BELOW: Financials outperforming energy, credit expansion cycle, demand-driven
v GLD/SLV [-1] HOLDING BELOW: Industrial optimism, silver industrial demand rising, growth confidence
v XHB/SPY [-2] CONFIRMED: Housing weakness, rate sensitivity biting, consumer stress