Regime Changepoint Detector

Today's market regime shows elevated drift at 2.63 normalized units, signaling meaningful structural shifts in asset behavior compared to recent trading patterns. The market is most similar to the post-GFC ZIRP environment (similarity score 21.0), suggesting current conditions reflect low-volatility, stimulus-driven dynamics rather than crisis or acceleration modes—the GFC regime scores negatively at -3.3, indicating we're materially distant from acute deleveraging stress. However, the gap between the top regime (21.0) and secondary regimes is stark; tariff shock concerns trail significantly at 2.9, while AI-bull growth and dot-com bust scenarios are minimal (.7 and 1.4 respectively), meaning the market is not pricing meaningful stagflation risk or tech rotation yet. The elevated drift tier combined with strong post-GFC similarity suggests the market is in a grinding, policy-dependent phase but with enough momentum shift that the CUSUM detector has flagged transition activity worth monitoring. Watch for whether drift continues climbing or stabilizes; sustained elevation above 3.0 would indicate a genuine regime changepoint rather than normal volatility.