Regime Changepoint Detector

Today's market regime shows a clear shift toward "taper_vol" dynamics with a 39.2% similarity score, suggesting conditions resembling the 2013-2015 taper tantrum period characterized by emerging market stress and commodity volatility. The drift rate sits at 1.71 in the NORMAL tier, indicating moderate but steady regime evolution rather than a crisis acceleration. Secondary similarities to the 2008 GFC (30.5%) and current rate-hiking environment (30.4%) are nearly equal, suggesting the market is caught between concerns about both credit stress and persistent inflation pressures. The sharp drop-off to just 3.1% similarity for both late-cycle and AI-bull regimes indicates the market has decisively moved away from the 2024-2025 growth narrative that dominated earlier periods. This pattern points to renewed volatility from external shocks or policy uncertainty rather than synchronized economic expansion.