Gold/Silver Ratio Signal

About This Dashboard

What It Does

Tracks the GLD/SLV ETF ratio as a contrarian silver buy signal. When the ratio crosses above P90 (8.84 ETF, ~88:1 metal), silver historically rallies +13.6% over 60 days (79% win rate across 14 non-overlapping trades, 2019-2025). Signal is ratio-specific -- outperforms pure silver mean-reversion by 2.7x. Best vehicles are GDX (+16.1%) and GDXJ (+15.8%) due to operating leverage. Sends email notification on signal activation, deactivation, and approach. Validated by scimode_gld_slv_signal_v1_0.py. KB finding #44746.

For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Current Ratio

6.06

~61:1 gold/silver

Percentile: 27th | SMA50: 6.31 | Threshold: 8.84

50-day ratio trend

Ratio Position (Full History)

3.2 (min)7.1 (avg)12.6 (max)

P90 (8.84)

Blue dot = current ratio | Black line = P90 threshold

Signal Edge (14 trades, non-overlapping)

Metric	At Signal (P90)	Baseline (all periods)	Edge
SLV 60d Mean Return	+13.6%	+3.5%	+10.1pp
Win Rate	78.6%	55.0%	+23.6pp
Median Return	+11.9%	+1.8%	+10.1pp
GDX 60d Mean	+16.1%	--	Best vehicle
GDXJ 60d Mean	+15.8%	--	2nd best

Scimode validated: ratio-specific signal (not just silver oversold). Outperforms pure SLV mean-reversion by 2.7x. KB finding #44746.

Target Prices

Ticker	Latest Price
SLV	$73.63
GDX	$100.34
GDXJ	$133.12
SIL	$100.98
GLD	$445.93

Historical Trades (P90 signal, 60d hold)

Entry	Exit (60d)	SLV Return	Result
2025-09-17	2025-12-11	+52.5%	[WIN]
2025-07-14	2025-10-07	+25.3%	[WIN]
2024-11-27	2025-02-27	+3.5%	[WIN]
2024-08-05	2024-10-29	+26.3%	[WIN]
2024-03-21	2024-06-17	+18.9%	[WIN]
2024-01-03	2024-04-01	+8.5%	[WIN]
2023-02-27	2023-05-23	+13.6%	[WIN]
2022-10-12	2023-01-09	+23.6%	[WIN]
2022-08-02	2022-10-26	-2.3%	[LOSS]
2022-05-12	2022-08-09	-1.0%	[LOSS]
2020-02-20	2020-05-15	-9.5%	[LOSS]
2019-12-06	2020-03-05	+5.3%	[WIN]
2019-08-01	2019-10-25	+10.1%	[WIN]
2019-05-13	2019-08-07	+15.4%	[WIN]
Total: 14 trades		+13.6% avg	11/14 (79%)

Methodology

Signal: GLD/SLV ETF ratio crosses above P90 (8.84, ~88:1 metal). The gold/silver ratio rises during fear and economic pessimism. Extreme readings historically precede silver mean-reversion rallies.

Validation: 14 non-overlapping trades (2019-2025), 79% win rate, +13.6% mean SLV 60d return vs +3.5% baseline. Ratio-specific (not just silver oversold). Monotonic threshold effect: higher ratio = bigger payoff.

Best vehicles: GDX (+16.1%), GDXJ (+15.8%), SLV (+13.6%). Miners have operating leverage to metal price.

Risk: Worst MAE was -34.6% (COVID crash, 2020-02-20). Median MAE is -3.3%. Suggested stop: -15%. Size: 2-3% portfolio.

Caveat: n=14 trades. Signal fires 1-2x/year when active. Zero signals 2006-2012. Dashboard threshold of 80:1 is too low -- real edge starts at ~88:1 (P90).